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The player has an equal chance of initially selecting the pažintys kurčias internetu pokalbiai, Goat A, or Goat B. Simulations[edit source editbeta] Simulation of 30 outcomes of the Monty Hall problem A simple way to demonstrate that a switching strategy really does win two out of three times on the average is to simulate the game with playing cards Gardner b; vos Savantp.

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Three cards from an ordinary deck are used to represent the three doors; one 'special' card such as the Ace of Spades should represent the door with the car, and ordinary cards, such as the two red twos, represent the goat doors.

The simulation, using the following procedure, can be repeated several times to simulate multiple rounds of the game. One card is dealt face-down at random to the 'player', to represent the door the player picks initially. Then, looking at the remaining two cards, at least one of which must be a red two, the 'host' discards a red two.

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If the card remaining in the host's hand is the Ace of Spades, this is recorded as a round where the player would have won by switching; if the host is holding a red two, the round is recorded as one where staying would have won. As this experiment is repeated over several rounds, the observed win rate for greitasis pažintys albany ny strategy is likely to approximate its theoretical win probability.

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Repeated plays also make it clearer why switching is the better strategy. After one card has been dealt to the player, it is already determined whether switching will win the round for the player; and two times out of three the Ace of Spades is in the host's hand.

Logika ir jos taikymas, ir logikos operatoriai[IQ!!].

If this is not convincing, the simulation can be done with the entire deck, dealing one card to the player and keeping the other 51 Gardner b; Adams In this variant the Ace of Spades goes to the host 51 times out of 52, and stays with the host no matter how many non-Ace cards are discarded.

Another simulation, suggested by vos Savant, employs the "host" hiding a penny, representing the car, under one of three cups, representing the doors; or hiding a pea under one of three shells. Solutions using conditional probability[edit source editbeta] The player is only asked whether or not he would like to switch after the host has opened greitasis pažintys albany ny particular door, different from the player's initial choice, and revealed a goat behind it.

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In order to be sure of having the best possible chance of getting the car, the player should clearly make his decision of whether or not to switch on the basis of the probability that the car is behind the other closed door, given all the information which he has at this moment.

That information consists, in the example given by Marilyn vos Savant, of the fact that it was door 1 which was initially chosen by himself, and that it was door 3 which was opened by the host to reveal a goat.

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Refining the simple solution[edit source editbeta] Given the player's initial choice, door 1, the host might also have opened door 2 to reveal a goat. Suppose we assume that the host is equally likely to open either door 2 or 3 if the car is behind door 1.

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We already assumed that the car is equally likely behind any of the three doors, and this remains so after the player has made his initial choice. It greitasis pažintys albany ny that the probability that the car is behind door 1 given the host opens door 3 and the player initially chose door 1 must equal the probability that the car is behind door 1 given the host opens door 2 and the player initially chose door 1, since all elementary probabilities in the problem probabilities of locations of car given the player initially chose door 1, and probabilities of which door the host will open if the car is behind door 1, the door chosen by the player are unchanged by interchanging the door numbers 2 and 3.

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In other words, given that the player initially chose door 1, whether the host opens door 2 or door 3 gives us no information at all as to whether or not the car is behind door 1. Moreover, the host is certainly going to open a different door to reveal a goat, so opening a door which door, door 2 or door 3, unspecified does not change this probability.

But these two probabilities are the same. This more refined analysis which can be found in the published discussion following the paper of Morgan et al. For example, if we imagine repetitions of the show, in all of which the player initially chooses door 1, a strategy of "always switching" will win about times — namely every time the car is not behind door 1. The solutions in this section consider just those cases in which not only the player picked door 1, but moreover the host went on to open door 3.